Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Can a Political Machine Beat a Popular Movement?

2008 is going to be the year that party chiefs got it all wrong. Hillary is trying to finagle her way back into the Democratic nomination using Machiavellian politics. She’s trying to split the party as well as the nation using tested and tried methods of scandal, injustice, and schism which will put the Clintons way up there with the Borgias of old. She’s using the political machine against a popular movement. She’s doomed to fail.

John McCain is going to use the same tactics. He’s going to highlight his experience against Obama’s. He’s going to use the same old entitlement speeches that Hillary tried to employ. The GOP will use the swift boats of anti-patriotism accusations against Obama that have proven unsuccessful. He’s going to use the old party political machine methods against a popular movement. McCain is going to lose.

You see folks, what we have here is something that doesn’t happen very often in elections, but it has the potential of creating a tsunami against anyone who opposes it. People want change. People want their politicians to change. People want their politics to change.

I saw this happening in Britain when Tony Blair was elected Prime Minister. People wanted change so badly that they stampeded their way to the ballot boxes and the Labor Party won by a landslide. Nothing could stop the popular movement. Nothing could stand in its wake. Nothing could compete against the people being motivated.

If the Democrat party nominates Hillary Clinton as their candidate, then the Democrats will be in the wilderness for a whole generation of at least 15 – 25 years. A young, zealous generation of voters will have their hopes dashed and their dreams burned. They won’t ever forgive the Democrats for damaging their hero.

The Republicans are also facing a tidal wave. John McCain cannot even raise enough people to buy tickets for a dinner in Texas. The people in the know already believe he is a loser, and that’s just amongst the Republicans. You can’t beat a popular movement, not even if you pull out a prisoner of war as your nominee. What happened in Louisiana and Mississippi a couple of weeks ago is not a blip – it’s the first wave of a tsunami.

I could be wrong in all of this, but it feels so much like Blair’s landslide victory in Britain all those years ago. I know America is a different nation, but this is a popular movement and no matter how experienced, sophisticated, and well oiled the political machine may be, it just cannot win.

So, for what it’s worth, here’s my prediction. Obama gains the Whitehouse in ’08 and the Democrats increase their seats in the House and Senate substantially. The old notion of checks and balances no longer prevails.

Of course, this all depends on what the Democrats do about Hillary on Saturday. If they screw that one up, all bets are off.


Diesel said...

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Stushie said...

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